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Figure 1a: Models predict rapid initial warming in response to a forcing. The current el Niño, as Bob Tisdale’s distinguished series of reports here demonstrates, is at least as big as the Great el Niño of 1998.The RSS temperature record is beginning to reflect its magnitude.On the questioners’ side it is rational: on the believers’ side it is a matter of increasingly blind faith.The New Superstition is no Technical note Our latest topical graph shows the least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean lower-troposphere dataset for as far back as it is possible to go and still find a zero trend.The trend lines measure what has occurred: they do not predict what will occur.
However, if there is a following la Niña, as there often is, the Pause may return at some time from the end of next year onward.
Yet the 225 months since then show no global warming at all (Fig. With this month’s RSS temperature record, the Pause beats last month’s record and now stands at 18 years 9 months. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 18 years 9 months since February 1997, though one-third of all anthropogenic forcings have occurred during the period of the Pause.
The accidental delegate from Burma provoked shrieks of fury from the congregation during the final benediction in Doha three years ago, when he said the Pause had endured for 16 years.
The start-date is not “cherry-picked” so as to coincide with the temperature spike caused by the 1998 el Niño.
Instead, it is calculated so as to find the longest period with a zero trend.
observed anomalies (dark blue) and trend (bright blue) at just 1.02 K/century equivalent, taken as the mean of the RSS and UAH v.6 satellite monthly mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies. Predicted temperature change, January 2005 to September 2015, at a rate equivalent to 1.7 [1.0, 2.3] Cº/century (orange zone with thick red best-estimate trend line), compared with the near-zero observed anomalies (dark blue) and real-world trend (bright blue), taken as the mean of the RSS and UAH v.6 satellite lower-troposphere temperature anomalies.